Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 ''01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) November Is here, but WPac is sleeping. =) ''Ryan1000 17:16, October 31, 2012 (UTC) 25W.NONAME Tropical Depression 25W No longer sleeping. Suppose to be a WPAC-NIO crossover =D. Isaac829 01:35, November 15, 2012 (UTC) Dead.Allanjeffs 01:56, November 15, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 25W =( --Isaac829 02:11, November 15, 2012 (UTC) 26W.BOPHA JMA Tropical Depression (91W.INVEST) 35 mph/1004 mb... AndrewTalk To Me 19:53, November 25, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 26W JTWC initiates advisories.Isaac829 23:42, November 25, 2012 (UTC) Finally I knew this system was going to form sadly is supposedly to hit the phillippines remember me of Washi last year hope its nothing to bad for them.Allanjeffs 01:49, November 26, 2012 (UTC) If this becomes named, it will be Bopha. It's already forecast to be a C2, but I'm not too sure what the Philipines will see from this. Washi last year never became a typhoon and still killed over 1,000 people. Worst case with this is it does that, but rivals Durian's strength in November/December 2006. I hope they're preparing... Ryan1000 18:43, November 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bopha Finally there.--Isaac829 00:16, November 27, 2012 (UTC) I have a very ominous feeling about this storm; I really don't like the way it looks on the latest sattelite imagery. Atmospheric conditions are very favorable for rapid intensification from this storm. I have the feeling Bopha will hit the Philipines at some point in the first week of December, but my biggest concern is how strong it will be when it gets there. The Philipines are no stranger to strong typhoons, but it's rare for them to hit this late in the season, another such storm was, as I mentioned above, 2006's Durian. The GFS actually keeps this out to sea and away from the Philipines, but the Euro isn't as confident it will miss the Philipines. They are, however, a bit slower with this storm's forward speed and don't expect it to get too big. I hope it misses the archapelago, but that's not a gurantee. Ryan1000 01:53, November 27, 2012 (UTC) The 24th storm of the season has come finally a year that is not that inactive in the Wpac for recent years. hope it miss the Phillippines though.Allanjeffs 03:02, November 27, 2012 (UTC) Now the Euro and GFS both foresee a Philipines landfall. JMA doesn't go out that far in advance, but their forecast brings it up to cat 2 by November 30. The JTWC makes it a cat 3 approaching the Philipines 5 days from now. Everything's still too far out in advance, but we'll see. Bopha seems to be nearing typhoon strength. Ryan1000 00:08, November 28, 2012 (UTC) As Bopha has stay more weak than forecast and even move south a little the Phillippines are likely to feel some effects of this system now. All the models are giving us a christmas present in the Atlantic as all the models give us Valerie in the next 4 to 5 days, but don`t get your hopes up people.Allanjeffs 22:27, November 28, 2012 (UTC) I don't think we'll see any post-season surprises in the Atlantic. As for Bopha, it seems like it'll be at least a cat 3 when it hits, but it could be stronger. If it was a strengthening typhoon by now, it might have had a chance to turn north and miss the islands, but that's not too likely now. Ryan1000 15:56, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Now classified by JMA as a Severe Tropical Storm, and by the JTWC as a Cat 1 typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, November 30, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Bopha Cat. 2 and starting to take off. Watch out, Philipines. Ryan1000 20:34, November 30, 2012 (UTC) Wuh oh. Cat 4 now, 130 mph. This storm is wicked on the latest satelite imagery. It could easily become a cat 5 later today. Ryan1000 01:58, December 1, 2012 (UTC) Speaking of intensity...be prepared for this truly unbelievable fact: According to the Wikipedia article, Bopha is the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded between 5 degrees north and 5 degrees south, making it the strongest storm ever recorded this close to the equator. To put my phrase in similar terms, this is the Western Pacific equivalent of Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Ekeka. AndrewTalk To Me 02:03, December 1, 2012 (UTC) It's also got a good chance at cat 5, this storm is wicked on sattelite imagery. It's still storming west northwest, so the Philipines will take a beating from this storm when it gets there, by then at least a cat 3. Ryan1000 15:54, December 1, 2012 (UTC) I think Bopha is a cat 5 now feel sorry for Palau that is going to feel the brunt of the storm first should be name Pablo as is entering the area of responsability of the Phillippines and after Palau see the direct hit of Bopha next in the line is the Phillippines they really need to be prepare of this monstruos storm.Allanjeffs 00:21, December 2, 2012 (UTC) It's agonizingly close. 155 mph right now, this rivals Durian of 2006 in intensity and could also rival him in destruction. The southern Philipines are actually some of the most populated parts of the country, so lots of people will be in harm's way. This storm is much more powerful than Washi of last year, which killed over 1,000 people from flooding. Because this storm is more than twice as powerful as Washi was, I think they'll probrably take this storm more seriously, but they need to get out now. This storm is only 1-2 days from landfall in the islands. Ryan1000 15:43, December 2, 2012 (UTC) It's weakening.Isaac829 23:55, December 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Bopha is back to a category four and it's structure is looking better than it did all day yesterday. Could get even stronger before landfall. Supportstorm (talk) 11:07, December 3, 2012 (UTC) :::It's a Category 5 super typhoon... --HurricaneMaker99 20:25, December 3, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. *Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created. **Ambo - 5% - Probably not. *Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either. **Butchoy - 0% - Barely affect(ed) the Philippines. *Talim - 15% - Only some crops. **Carina - 0% - No. *Doksuri - 40% - Not that much. **Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire. *Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK. **Enteng - 0% - No effects. *Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought. **Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad. *Saola - 60% - Quite some damage. **Gener - 20% - Maybe. *Damrey - 45% - See Vicente. *Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China. *Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all. *Kai-tak - 30% - Not bad. **Helen - 20% - Haikui was worse. *Tembin - 30% - Meh. **Igme - 0% - Nope. *Bolaven - 55% - Quite some damage in both Koreas. **Julian - 0% - Nah. *Sanba - 45% - Some waves in Korea. **Karen - 20% - Some flooding, but I dont see this retiring. *Jelawat - ? **Lawin - 15% - Just rain. *Ewiniar - 0% - I don't think so. *Maliksi - 0% - Per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Probably less damage than Pakhar. **Marce - 0% - Just a little rain. *Prapiroon - 0% - See Sanvu. **Nina - 0% - Nope. *Maria - 0% - Nah. *Son-Tinh - 20% - Vietnam and China survived the RI. **Ofel - 20% - Didn't do much. *Bopha - ? **Pablo - ? Isaac829 16:35, December 2, 2012 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: JMA: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. #Sanvu - 0% - No. #Mawar - 1% - I doubt it. #Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad. #Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely. #Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance. #Khanun - 70% - South Korea might consider this damaging, and it is. #Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse. #Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui. #Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going. #Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes. #Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section. #Kai-tak - 30% - Maybe so. #Tembin - 75% - Caused the effects in Taiwan. #Bolaven - 80% - Rare Russia cyclone, and also hit me and lots of other places. #Sanba - 70% - Strong storm both meteorologically and impactwise. #Jelawat - 40% - Another storm with a possible chance. #Ewiniar - 0% - See Sanvu and Kirogi's sections. #Maliksi - 0% - See Sanvu, Kirogi, and Ewiniar's sections. #Gaemi - 1% - See Mawar's section. #Prapiroon - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse. #Butchoy - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Carina - 0% - No Cosme here. #Dindo - 4% - I still doubt Dindo will go. #Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects. #Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines. #Helen - 30% - Not that damaging. #Igme - 1% - What did the Philippines see? #Julian - 0% - See Butchoy's section. #Karen - 0% - See Butchoy and Julian's sections. #Lawin - 1% - See Igme's section. #Marce - <1% - See Butchoy, Julian, and Karen's sections. #Nina - TBA - Still Active --AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC) : Are you sure about giving 3% to Khanun?Isaac829 16:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine: JMA: *Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance. *Sanvu - 0% - No. *Mawar - 0% - No chance. *Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement. *Talim - 0% - I doubt it. *Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so. *Khanun - 70% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though. *Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me. *Saola - 35% - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired. *Damrey - 10% - I don't think so. *Haikui - 85% - Philippines: severely affected; China: also affected; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui. *Kirogi - 0% - see Talim. *Kai-tak - 10% - Maybe not. *Tembin - 35% - I don't think so, but who knows? Maybe Taiwan may request for Tembin to be retired. *Bolaven - 60% - Significant damages in the Korean Peninsula (North and South Korea), so it has chances of retirement in the long run. *Sanba - 20% - There are chances that this may be retired; it's a very intense storm, and had effects in the Korean Peninsula and Japan *Jelawat - 5% - No reported damages, but still a Cat 5. *Ewiniar - 0% - see Kirogi. *Maliksi - 0% - per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Only some significant effects in Vietnam and the Philippines. *Prapiroon - 1% - Michael's equivalent in the Western Pacific. Almost no chance of retirement here. *Maria - 0% - see Maliksi, Ewiniar, Kirogi and Talim's sections. *Son-Tinh - 20% - Not that damaging. Philippines and Vietnam have seen more disastrous storms than Son-Tinh, like Xangsane in 2006. *Bopha - ?? - See Pablo's below. PAGASA: *Ambo - 0% - No. *Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it. *Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish. *Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish. *Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines. *Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage. *Gener - 30% - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands. *Helen - 51% - P500 million damages, but not enough. *Igme - 0% - Stayed in the Philippines for a while, but no significant effects. *Julian - 0% - No. Not at all. *Karen - 0.01% - An intense typhoon, but no effects on Philippine land. *Lawin - 0.001% - Per above. *Marce - 2% - Caused some rainfall in the Philippines, but only slight effects. *Nina - 0% - No damages in the Philippines. *Ofel - 10% - Despite all the news reports of the severe damage in the central part of the country, still, it did not cause PHP 1 billion in damages, it didn't even reach PHP 100 million! 24 deaths for Ofel isn't enough to cause its retirement, unless it may pull out a Cosme. *Pablo - ?? - To be detemined yet, but I'm concerned to the people in the Visayas and Mindanao regions of the Philippines. It might pull out a Nitang or Undang (Ike and Agnes respectively; both 1984), or worse, like Titang (Kate; 1970), Ruping (Mike; 1990), Nanang (Lingling; 2001), or Sendong (Washi; 2011). If the worst would really happen, hence, Bopha/Pablo would be Sandy's counterpart in the Western Pacific for this season. - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:03, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine: JMA names: *Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe. *Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance. *Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu. *Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance. *Talim - 0% - Nah. *Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here. *Khanun - 65% - Pretty bad, but not too sure...Korea's seen worse. *Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time. *Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad. *Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe. *Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang. *Kirogi - 0% - What's that now? *Kai-Tak - 35% - Something reasonable, but nothing severe. *Tembin - 35% - Not as severe as Bolaven. *Bolaven - 50% - Kind of a toss-up. It was bad, though they've seen worse. Certainly has a shot though. *Sanba - 30% - 379 million and 2 deaths. We'll see. *Jelawat - 20% - Nothing exceptionally severe. *Ewiniar - 0% - Nothing expected out of this. *Maliksi - 0% - Fail. *Gaemi - <5% - Probrably nothing severe in Vietnam. *Prapiroon - 0% - Fishie. *Maria - 0% - Nothing to say here. *Son-Tinh - 25% - For now, may adjust later. *Bopha - ?? - Still active, but this storm represents a mirror image of Durian (2006), Ike (1984), or Mike (1990) for the Philipines. They're gonna take a beating from this, but I don't know how hard yet. PAGASA names: *Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen. *Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines. *Carina -No damage to the islands. *Dindo - See Carina. *Enteng - Not a chance. *Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms. *Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie. *Helen - 30% - Something, but not devastating. Has a shot considering their standards though. *Igme - 0% - No damage to the islands. *Julian - 0% - Again, nothing to the Philipines. *Karen - <5% - No big impacts in the Philipines. *Lawin - 0% - Not a scratch to the islands. *Marce - 0% - Nothing to the Philipines. *Nina - 0% - Not expected to hit the islands. *Ofel - 10% - Nothing that bad to the Philipines. *Pablo ?? - Still active, but I'm growing increasingly concerned about the Philipines. Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC) :Ryan, are you sure about 0% for Khanun? It worsened a nasty flooding situation in North Korea that has killed at least 169 people. http://www.bnonews.com/inbox/?id=1007 --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, August 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Ryan, are you really sure about what you gave to Khanun? - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Sorry, I was looking at a completely different storm. Couldn't say no to that, but not 100%. Ryan1000 00:24, August 22, 2012 (UTC)